The Mediterranean Forecasting System Pilot Project

funded by the European Union MAST III Programme
MA53-CT98-0171

Predicting what is likely to happen in the marine environment is an essential part of the management of marine resources which are being subjected to anthropogenic stress. If an operational coastal ocean environmental monitoring and forecast system is to be developed. the marine science community must be able to determine the potential timescales of predictability of the marine ecosystem.
Such a system should be able to:

• provide estimates of the changes in both the physical and biogeochemical marine environments
• provide greater understanding of how marine ecosystems function, an essential element in guiding resource management
• provide an early warning system of potentially harmful ecological events
• aid the formulation of cost effective preventive and remedial measures.

To address these issues the project takes existing ecosystem models and explores, models and quantifies the potential predictability of certain ecosystems. The IMBC contribution to the project takes the ERSEM model and applies it to the Cretan sea.

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