Mean sea level rise acceleration on the Polish Coast during the last 48 years
Mean sea level rise acceleration on the Polish Coast during the last 48 yearsM. Kalas
Institute of Meteorology and Water Management, Maritime
Branch, Gdynia
Abstract
An increase of mean sea level was obtained based
on the analyze of the long annually mean sea level
records from tide gauges along the Polish coast. Coefficients
for linear trend equation as well as coefficients for
parabolic trend equation were established. The first
one indicate mean annually rise of sea level, but the
second one shows the sea level rise acceleration (i.e.
deviation from a purely linear rise) and indicate a
predicted rapidity of future mean sea level rise.
Seven complete tide gauges records for the 48year period
(19471994) (for Swinoujscie, Kolobrzeg, Ustka, Wladyslawowo,
Hel, Gdansk and Gdynia) were analised and for all of
them evidently positive values of linear trend coefficient
are found, from 0.103 cm/yr for Kolobrzeg to 0.253
cm/yr for Gdansk. For this period non zero, positive
values for parabolic trend coefficients are visible,
from 0.003 cm/yr2 for Ustka to 0.011 cm/yr2 for Swinoujscie,
which indicate an observed acceleration of mean sea
level rise on the Polish coast. For comparison much
longer record of yearly mean sea level values for Swinoujscie
for the period of 182 years (18111993) was analyzed.
When records of annually mean sea level values (for
the periods: 18111845, 18461900 and 1901 1946) were
analised it was obtained that the values for acceleration
coefficients of sea level rise are equal to 0.000 mm/yr2
for all this cases. This show that the last half century
a significant acceleration of mean sea level rise on
the Polish coast is observed.